Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid:
A Derby of a Quarterfinal
WHY THE BEST DRAW?
There’s no reason to say anything to diminish the PSG vs Barcelona matchup, which could be a memorable, two-act spectacle, and definitely is not to miss. The reason the rematch of last season’s Champions League final, Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid, will be the focus of this round’s The Best Draw, is that tactics are more likely to play a prominent, enduring role in this tie, which looks to be both structured and cagey, while Barcelona vs PSG could very well end up wide open, with all plans scrapped in a free-for-all, coaches reduced to rooting for their stars.
Despite the misleading score of 4-1 in last year’s Champions League final, it was as close as it gets. Central defender Diego Godin struck first for Atletico, and it took a ninety-third minute header from the game’s other primary central defender, Sergio Ramos, to send the final into overtime, where Madrid went on to dominate a clearly less deep, dispirited Atletico side.
The revenge factor in this upcoming tie is complicated by the fact that Real have played Atletico six times since the final and not beaten them once, having been knocked out of both the Copa del Rey and the Spanish Supercup in Madrid derbies; they were also well-beaten by their city rivals in their last league match, 0-4, on February 7th.
Real come into this game the more immediately in-form side, with important players having recently returned from injury, and having thrashed Granada 9-1 in early April. Many Madrid starters (Kroos, Bale, Carvajal, James Rodriguez & Benzema) did not play on Saturday for one reason or another, and they still cruised by Rayo Vallecano, while Atletico was without only Godin and Mandzukic, and they played to a draw against a Malaga team fighting for a Europa League spot. Real, therefore, should be the fresher team at Estadio Vicente Calderon, but the fans there will try to remedy that, and it’s easy to forget given Real's recent displays that it's Atletico that have not lost since February 15th.
Games between these two teams are usually tight and often decided by set piece conversions, but if one team finds and exploits a tactical advantage, there is the possibility of either team rolling over the other, with Real the front-runners to do so.
TACTICAL ASPECTS
The Problem Presented by Two Dominant Wingers
The problem with a team that has two outside forwards that will torch you is that it’s nearly impossible to skew your team’s formation to provide due cover for both sides. A significant amount of the dominant attacking teams in the last decade have had such a pair of aces, from 2008 Manchester United, where Cristiano Ronaldo and Rooney often attacked either flank; to Bayern from 2009 to present with Ribery and Robben; to the current Barcelona with Messi back out on the right and Neymar opposite, and of course Ronaldo and Bale at Madrid. It’s interesting to note that all three Champions League favorites this year (all aforementioned) boast precisely this headache for defenses to try and contain.
Since there isn't a quick-fix tactical solution that’s sustainable, the hypothetical way to contest a pair of speedy dribbling wingers is uber-focused, tenacious, tactically disciplined players who embrace playing both sides of the ball and cover well for each other. This happens to be Atletico Coach Diego “Cholo” Simeone’s hallmark. In fact, since Bielsa’s Marseille has begun to struggle (as Bielsa’s teams often do late-season) and Klopp's Dortmund unlikely to even qualify for next year's Champions League, it could be said that Simeone is the current, undisputed king of this type of club football, at least in Europe.
Atletico’s wingbacks are all slight of build, but built for both speed and distance. Whoever plays between Juanfran, Gamez and Siquiera will not be easily outrun, but the strength of the Madrid wingers is a concern, and these wing defenders will certainly need help. Most likely, Bale and Ronaldo will be initially checked by outside midfielders Turan and Koke wide, who are both game to defend, with Atletico’s two selected inside midfielders, Gabi, Tiago or Mario Suarez, shuffling out wide to try and slow them up as well.
Atletico’s Enigmatic Attackers
Athletico Madrid have managed to grow as an institution in large part by selling a remarkable series of apparently dispensable star strikers to fund further acquisitions: Vieri, Hasslebaink, Torres, Aguero, Forlan, Villa and Costa have all come and gone, with Torres returning for a second, less-promising stint. Since Simeone took over in 2011, Atletico’s core strength lies in it’s active, upfield defensive concept and skillful, integral approach to counterattacking. This year, without a dominant attacker for the first time in more than fifteen years, Atletico have relied on a confounding combination of attackers.
Arda Turan is an unsolved statistical anomaly. Perhaps second only to Messi in terms of his ability to dribble in tight spaces, he’s a difference-maker who rarely scores (3), sometimes assists (6), and whose key pass rate of 1.4 is not particularly impressive. A short, stout midfielder who often posts up on the the wing--like some much bigger holding forward would do centrally--when help arrives, Turan often dodges through traffic and delivers a crisp pass. While this doesn't sound particularly impressive, it is often his creation of these clusters and his escape from them that causes the initial entropy in the opponents’ defense--ultimately leading to a goal a few passes later. His ability to create imbalance is crucial for Atletico, and being guarded by Marcelo will make his role more difficult to fulfill, unless Marcelo overdoes his adventuring.
Koke is a much more direct player, but one whose characteristics also trick traditional description. Despite Gabi still being one of the top ten tacklers in Europe, his influence as a leader seems to have diminished some on this Atletico side, with Koke picking up the slack. Relentless and confident creating from the wing, one of Koke's main strengths is that he rarely fails to impact a game.
Griezmann (21 goals) and Mandzukic (20) are the small committee who are en route to replacing the fifty goals scored by Diego Costa last season. Griezmann, a diminutive, quick, feisty winger/striker has scored four goals in the last three games, after a drought that lasted through the entire month of March. Mandzukic is Atletico’s leading scorer in the Champions League, with five goals. While he doesn't have a characteristic that stands out besides his aerial ability and willingness to frustrate opponents in wily ways, his deep Champions League runs with Bayern make him an experienced poacher. Mandzukic will battle with the two Madrid center backs, Ramos, Pepe or Varane, while Griezmann will often push out wide and should test Carvajal.
Midfield Advantages
Both Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid play in essentially three shapes, a 4-4-3, a 4-4-2 and an occasional 4-2-3-1. Real tend to favor the 4-4-3, with Atletico lining up more frequently in a 4-4-2 these days. If neither team aims to mirror the other and switch things up, it would seem that Real Madrid have a man advantage in the center of the pitch, and a defensive disadvantage on the wings, especially (as always) behind Ronaldo.
The formidable Real center midfield trio of Modric, Kroos and James Rodriguez/Isco, will surely at times find themselves defended by a duo of Atletico center midfielders, the frequency of this situation depending on how cleanly Madrid’s defense tackles, and how quickly they get the ball to one of their pivots. Atletico’s forward pressure hopes to complicate this, but the numerical superiority exists in a crucial region of the field nonetheless, and whereas before Madrid often played one defensive midfield specialist who was inept in front of the goal, all of their current midfielders are two-way players with an eye for goal when it presents itself. Modric, it should be noted, has been playing particularly well of late.
While Bale will track back to contain Koke, Ronaldo will only sporadically try and contribute to Real’s defense of Turan. If Turkey’s best player can combine effectively with Mandzukic and Griezmann, this would be where Atletico’s goals would most likely come from during the run of play. Real’s goals will of course most likely come from Ronaldo, who has scored one less goal this year (47) than have Griezmann, Mandzukic, Turan and Koke, combined (48).
SUBPLOTS/INTANGIBLES
A Derby of a Quarterfinal
WHY THE BEST DRAW?
There’s no reason to say anything to diminish the PSG vs Barcelona matchup, which could be a memorable, two-act spectacle, and definitely is not to miss. The reason the rematch of last season’s Champions League final, Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid, will be the focus of this round’s The Best Draw, is that tactics are more likely to play a prominent, enduring role in this tie, which looks to be both structured and cagey, while Barcelona vs PSG could very well end up wide open, with all plans scrapped in a free-for-all, coaches reduced to rooting for their stars.
Despite the misleading score of 4-1 in last year’s Champions League final, it was as close as it gets. Central defender Diego Godin struck first for Atletico, and it took a ninety-third minute header from the game’s other primary central defender, Sergio Ramos, to send the final into overtime, where Madrid went on to dominate a clearly less deep, dispirited Atletico side.
The revenge factor in this upcoming tie is complicated by the fact that Real have played Atletico six times since the final and not beaten them once, having been knocked out of both the Copa del Rey and the Spanish Supercup in Madrid derbies; they were also well-beaten by their city rivals in their last league match, 0-4, on February 7th.
Real come into this game the more immediately in-form side, with important players having recently returned from injury, and having thrashed Granada 9-1 in early April. Many Madrid starters (Kroos, Bale, Carvajal, James Rodriguez & Benzema) did not play on Saturday for one reason or another, and they still cruised by Rayo Vallecano, while Atletico was without only Godin and Mandzukic, and they played to a draw against a Malaga team fighting for a Europa League spot. Real, therefore, should be the fresher team at Estadio Vicente Calderon, but the fans there will try to remedy that, and it’s easy to forget given Real's recent displays that it's Atletico that have not lost since February 15th.
Games between these two teams are usually tight and often decided by set piece conversions, but if one team finds and exploits a tactical advantage, there is the possibility of either team rolling over the other, with Real the front-runners to do so.
TACTICAL ASPECTS
The Problem Presented by Two Dominant Wingers
The problem with a team that has two outside forwards that will torch you is that it’s nearly impossible to skew your team’s formation to provide due cover for both sides. A significant amount of the dominant attacking teams in the last decade have had such a pair of aces, from 2008 Manchester United, where Cristiano Ronaldo and Rooney often attacked either flank; to Bayern from 2009 to present with Ribery and Robben; to the current Barcelona with Messi back out on the right and Neymar opposite, and of course Ronaldo and Bale at Madrid. It’s interesting to note that all three Champions League favorites this year (all aforementioned) boast precisely this headache for defenses to try and contain.
Since there isn't a quick-fix tactical solution that’s sustainable, the hypothetical way to contest a pair of speedy dribbling wingers is uber-focused, tenacious, tactically disciplined players who embrace playing both sides of the ball and cover well for each other. This happens to be Atletico Coach Diego “Cholo” Simeone’s hallmark. In fact, since Bielsa’s Marseille has begun to struggle (as Bielsa’s teams often do late-season) and Klopp's Dortmund unlikely to even qualify for next year's Champions League, it could be said that Simeone is the current, undisputed king of this type of club football, at least in Europe.
Atletico’s wingbacks are all slight of build, but built for both speed and distance. Whoever plays between Juanfran, Gamez and Siquiera will not be easily outrun, but the strength of the Madrid wingers is a concern, and these wing defenders will certainly need help. Most likely, Bale and Ronaldo will be initially checked by outside midfielders Turan and Koke wide, who are both game to defend, with Atletico’s two selected inside midfielders, Gabi, Tiago or Mario Suarez, shuffling out wide to try and slow them up as well.
Atletico’s Enigmatic Attackers
Athletico Madrid have managed to grow as an institution in large part by selling a remarkable series of apparently dispensable star strikers to fund further acquisitions: Vieri, Hasslebaink, Torres, Aguero, Forlan, Villa and Costa have all come and gone, with Torres returning for a second, less-promising stint. Since Simeone took over in 2011, Atletico’s core strength lies in it’s active, upfield defensive concept and skillful, integral approach to counterattacking. This year, without a dominant attacker for the first time in more than fifteen years, Atletico have relied on a confounding combination of attackers.
Arda Turan is an unsolved statistical anomaly. Perhaps second only to Messi in terms of his ability to dribble in tight spaces, he’s a difference-maker who rarely scores (3), sometimes assists (6), and whose key pass rate of 1.4 is not particularly impressive. A short, stout midfielder who often posts up on the the wing--like some much bigger holding forward would do centrally--when help arrives, Turan often dodges through traffic and delivers a crisp pass. While this doesn't sound particularly impressive, it is often his creation of these clusters and his escape from them that causes the initial entropy in the opponents’ defense--ultimately leading to a goal a few passes later. His ability to create imbalance is crucial for Atletico, and being guarded by Marcelo will make his role more difficult to fulfill, unless Marcelo overdoes his adventuring.
Koke is a much more direct player, but one whose characteristics also trick traditional description. Despite Gabi still being one of the top ten tacklers in Europe, his influence as a leader seems to have diminished some on this Atletico side, with Koke picking up the slack. Relentless and confident creating from the wing, one of Koke's main strengths is that he rarely fails to impact a game.
Griezmann (21 goals) and Mandzukic (20) are the small committee who are en route to replacing the fifty goals scored by Diego Costa last season. Griezmann, a diminutive, quick, feisty winger/striker has scored four goals in the last three games, after a drought that lasted through the entire month of March. Mandzukic is Atletico’s leading scorer in the Champions League, with five goals. While he doesn't have a characteristic that stands out besides his aerial ability and willingness to frustrate opponents in wily ways, his deep Champions League runs with Bayern make him an experienced poacher. Mandzukic will battle with the two Madrid center backs, Ramos, Pepe or Varane, while Griezmann will often push out wide and should test Carvajal.
Midfield Advantages
Both Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid play in essentially three shapes, a 4-4-3, a 4-4-2 and an occasional 4-2-3-1. Real tend to favor the 4-4-3, with Atletico lining up more frequently in a 4-4-2 these days. If neither team aims to mirror the other and switch things up, it would seem that Real Madrid have a man advantage in the center of the pitch, and a defensive disadvantage on the wings, especially (as always) behind Ronaldo.
The formidable Real center midfield trio of Modric, Kroos and James Rodriguez/Isco, will surely at times find themselves defended by a duo of Atletico center midfielders, the frequency of this situation depending on how cleanly Madrid’s defense tackles, and how quickly they get the ball to one of their pivots. Atletico’s forward pressure hopes to complicate this, but the numerical superiority exists in a crucial region of the field nonetheless, and whereas before Madrid often played one defensive midfield specialist who was inept in front of the goal, all of their current midfielders are two-way players with an eye for goal when it presents itself. Modric, it should be noted, has been playing particularly well of late.
While Bale will track back to contain Koke, Ronaldo will only sporadically try and contribute to Real’s defense of Turan. If Turkey’s best player can combine effectively with Mandzukic and Griezmann, this would be where Atletico’s goals would most likely come from during the run of play. Real’s goals will of course most likely come from Ronaldo, who has scored one less goal this year (47) than have Griezmann, Mandzukic, Turan and Koke, combined (48).
SUBPLOTS/INTANGIBLES
- Real coach Carlo Ancelotti about Atletico coach Diego Simeone: “He’s one of the world’s best. It’s an honor to face him, and also a problem.”
- Atletico coach Diego Simeone about Real coach Carlo Ancelotti: "We cannot choose our opponents, but I admire Ancelotti as a man – he doesn't change his words whether his team win or lose. It's a source of pride to compete against the best and Carlo is one of them."
- Likely substitute Fernando Torres has scored just 5 times in 21 appearances, but 4 of those five goals came against either Real Madrid or Barcelona.
- Atletico Madrid average the second most tackles per game (24.2) in Europe (whoscored.com)