Juventus vs Barcelona:
The Underrated vs the Unstoppable
There’s no way of sugarcoating it: Chiellini’s ill-timed, practice pitch injury is tragic for both Juventus and for the hundreds of millions of neutral fans watching this most-viewed of all annual sporting events.
That said, there are a few factors that point us towards a Champions League final silver lining:
TACTICAL ASPECTS:
The Subtle Differences in Their Likely Formations
Barcelona will play this 4-3-3 and Juventus will most likely play this 4-DIAMOND-2. Despite these different-sounding descriptions of their shapes, their shapes themselves are actually similar except for two key differences.
Both of their back fours will feature tireless wide runners who get way up the field and are also competent tacklers.
Finally having recovered his fitness after a series of injuries, Dani Alves has made the pointed remarks about his physical decline look wildly premature, and an uncountable number of analysts--both on camera and from the comfort of their armchairs--have had to either eat their words or resort to selective amnesia.
Jordi Alba on the left is a handful for anyone going forward, and manages to get caught upfield less than his counterpart.
Patrice Evra has had a resurgent season despite uncertainty about whether he would even start at Juventus.
Stephan Lichtsteiner on the right is a superb crosser and this year’s Champions League’s undisputed king of distance running, with his teammate Arturo Vidal needing to outrun him by 11.5 kilometers on Saturday to catch him.
Their midfields both begin with amazingly prolific passers in Pirlo and Busquets at the pivot, but though Busquets is a far better positional defender in the midfield, he is also asked to play substitute center back in moments when Mascherano and Pique get dragged out of the middle, a situation which the taller Juventus striker Alvaro Morata could take advantage of as Athletic Club’s Iñaka Williams did in the Copa del Rey Final.
Both teams play with two midfielders ahead of their pivot, with Iniesta and Rakitic having complemented each other’s skillsets to an uncanny degree this season. Juventus’ most likely pairing is Pogba on the left and Marchisio on the left. These two also offer the type of asymmetricality that can destabilize defenses. Pogba--it should be mentioned--is the game’s x-factor.
The front three players are where the teams line up differently on offense, with Suarez playing in advance of Neymar and Messi, and Juve inverting that shape to have another midfielder at the top of their diamond just behind their two strikers. Whoever this midfielder is (likely Vidal) will share space with Busquets, while Barcelona will look to press Pirlo but don’t actually have anyone who will be treading directly in his territory. They may ask Suarez to do so, as teams that don’t press the precise Pirlo find themselves feeling spread out even when compact.
The second difference in shape is on defense Barcelona will try and stun Juve after they lose the ball with quick, concerted pressure, but past that their world’s best attacking trio doesn’t track back particularly well. Juve, on the other hand, will collapse their diamond into two banks of four and defend deeper, with their two forwards harassing like Atletico Madrid’s do.
Within this first bank of four, when they are both in form, Vidal and Pogba’s energy in the midfield is matched only by Verratti and Matuidi of PSG, which is coincidentally the only team to beat Barcelona in the Champions League this year--albeit in four attempts. Vidal has finally returned to form after knee surgery last year, but Pogba is yet to look himself since returning from his recent hamstring injury.
While Alvaro Morata looked like Juve’s weakest link for much of the season and sometimes tends to run with his head down (infuriating Tevez), he has been peaking in the past couple of months in terms of effort and production, and his confidence is high after crucial goals against his former club Real Madrid in the semifinals.
Barcelona’s Ubiquitous Trio
Called the “Cono Sur” by some and “MSN” by others, Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez have the potential to become the best attacking trio to date. Not only is it likely Juventus fail to stop them, but that this is the beginning of a dynasty that could could continue indefinitely, or at least for a few years, without any team figuring out the solution to the problems they present by their unselfishness, their general combined acumen and their ability to anticipate each other’s runs and to get each other the ball in a manner that fits each player’s style.
Messi in particular is looking like he will not be denied. In the Copa del Rey final Athletic Club had the young, strong and fast defender Balenziaga stalk him wherever he went, with license to foul him at will and in an attempt to get him discouraged--something he has been guilty of in the past. Instead, he seemed to convert these frequent knocks into fury and did this to Balenziaga and his henchmen.
Chiellini recently came out with the taunt that Messi would not be able to score that type of goal against an Italian team.
The stage is set, yet Chiellini won’t be on it.
Juventus’ Flex Tactics
Alegri has had an impressive Champion’s League season as the coach of a team that was succeeding everywhere but here. Against Monaco, only a goal up, he went into complete huddle-in-the-bunker mode, parking the bus and absorbing twelve shots and 170 attacking third passes (fourfourtwo.com). Then, when they were expected to repeat this strategy against mighty Madrid, they came out throwing haymakers and landed them. Most likely, Juventus will need to employ an astute mix of both strategies.
While Juventus are OK with 45% of possession no matter who they play against, they won’t get that much against Barcelona, so they will need to make the most out of the opportunities they get, and avoid being frustrated by Barcelona’s tiki-taka spells--that these days turn in the blink of an eye into some of the cleverest counterattacks imaginable.
Much has been made of injuries this Champions League, most notably to key players on Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, but it is certainly possible that these are the best two teams in the world this year, and while the injury to Chiellini puts Barcelona in the driver’s seat, Juventus also could be the team most likely to be able to ask questions of coach Luis Enrique’s favorites.
SUBPLOTS/INTANGIBLES:
The Underrated vs the Unstoppable
There’s no way of sugarcoating it: Chiellini’s ill-timed, practice pitch injury is tragic for both Juventus and for the hundreds of millions of neutral fans watching this most-viewed of all annual sporting events.
That said, there are a few factors that point us towards a Champions League final silver lining:
- Juve have an abnormal amount of on-field leaders besides Chiellini: Pirlo, Vidal, Buffon, and Tevez have all looked like the on-field reference point--in their own distinct way--at different junctures of the season, and often for different stretches within a single game.
- There are able replacements: If Juventus Coach Massimiliano Allegri decides to stay with a back four, he will replace his best defender with either the imposing Ogbonna or the experienced Barzagli. While there are fitness questions about each of them, they are both capable of mustering a strong performance, and either will be paired with perhaps the most underrated center back there is in Bonucci, who has been in his center-back partner Chiellini's shadow for years. If they go with a back five, they will be without options for defensive substitutions, and only three of their five excellent midfielders (Vidal, Pirlo, Pogba, Marchisio and Pereyra) will end up playing the majority of the game; this would appear a cautious mistake.
- Juventus are still dangerously underrated: While it is now obvious just how much they’ve underperformed in their previous two Champions League campaigns, their recent exits in this competition have had an element of poor luck. In 2012-2013 they were paired in the quarterfinals with a transcendent Bayern team, and were without Vidal for the first leg. While losing 0-4 on aggregate doesn’t say much about the fight they put up, what is relevant here is that Bayern went on to beat Barcelona 7-0 on aggregate in the semifinals. Last year Juve needed a single point to progress from the group stages out of their game in Turkey versus Galatasaray. They faced an extraordinarily hostile crowd and so much snow that the game was cancelled mid-way, then restarted the next day, again in the snow. An 87th minute goal from Wesley Schneider cued their exit music. Aside from their Champions League bow-outs, they have won seven trophies in the last four years--only one less than their current rivals Barcelona during the same stretch.
TACTICAL ASPECTS:
The Subtle Differences in Their Likely Formations
Barcelona will play this 4-3-3 and Juventus will most likely play this 4-DIAMOND-2. Despite these different-sounding descriptions of their shapes, their shapes themselves are actually similar except for two key differences.
Both of their back fours will feature tireless wide runners who get way up the field and are also competent tacklers.
Finally having recovered his fitness after a series of injuries, Dani Alves has made the pointed remarks about his physical decline look wildly premature, and an uncountable number of analysts--both on camera and from the comfort of their armchairs--have had to either eat their words or resort to selective amnesia.
Jordi Alba on the left is a handful for anyone going forward, and manages to get caught upfield less than his counterpart.
Patrice Evra has had a resurgent season despite uncertainty about whether he would even start at Juventus.
Stephan Lichtsteiner on the right is a superb crosser and this year’s Champions League’s undisputed king of distance running, with his teammate Arturo Vidal needing to outrun him by 11.5 kilometers on Saturday to catch him.
Their midfields both begin with amazingly prolific passers in Pirlo and Busquets at the pivot, but though Busquets is a far better positional defender in the midfield, he is also asked to play substitute center back in moments when Mascherano and Pique get dragged out of the middle, a situation which the taller Juventus striker Alvaro Morata could take advantage of as Athletic Club’s Iñaka Williams did in the Copa del Rey Final.
Both teams play with two midfielders ahead of their pivot, with Iniesta and Rakitic having complemented each other’s skillsets to an uncanny degree this season. Juventus’ most likely pairing is Pogba on the left and Marchisio on the left. These two also offer the type of asymmetricality that can destabilize defenses. Pogba--it should be mentioned--is the game’s x-factor.
The front three players are where the teams line up differently on offense, with Suarez playing in advance of Neymar and Messi, and Juve inverting that shape to have another midfielder at the top of their diamond just behind their two strikers. Whoever this midfielder is (likely Vidal) will share space with Busquets, while Barcelona will look to press Pirlo but don’t actually have anyone who will be treading directly in his territory. They may ask Suarez to do so, as teams that don’t press the precise Pirlo find themselves feeling spread out even when compact.
The second difference in shape is on defense Barcelona will try and stun Juve after they lose the ball with quick, concerted pressure, but past that their world’s best attacking trio doesn’t track back particularly well. Juve, on the other hand, will collapse their diamond into two banks of four and defend deeper, with their two forwards harassing like Atletico Madrid’s do.
Within this first bank of four, when they are both in form, Vidal and Pogba’s energy in the midfield is matched only by Verratti and Matuidi of PSG, which is coincidentally the only team to beat Barcelona in the Champions League this year--albeit in four attempts. Vidal has finally returned to form after knee surgery last year, but Pogba is yet to look himself since returning from his recent hamstring injury.
While Alvaro Morata looked like Juve’s weakest link for much of the season and sometimes tends to run with his head down (infuriating Tevez), he has been peaking in the past couple of months in terms of effort and production, and his confidence is high after crucial goals against his former club Real Madrid in the semifinals.
Barcelona’s Ubiquitous Trio
Called the “Cono Sur” by some and “MSN” by others, Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez have the potential to become the best attacking trio to date. Not only is it likely Juventus fail to stop them, but that this is the beginning of a dynasty that could could continue indefinitely, or at least for a few years, without any team figuring out the solution to the problems they present by their unselfishness, their general combined acumen and their ability to anticipate each other’s runs and to get each other the ball in a manner that fits each player’s style.
Messi in particular is looking like he will not be denied. In the Copa del Rey final Athletic Club had the young, strong and fast defender Balenziaga stalk him wherever he went, with license to foul him at will and in an attempt to get him discouraged--something he has been guilty of in the past. Instead, he seemed to convert these frequent knocks into fury and did this to Balenziaga and his henchmen.
Chiellini recently came out with the taunt that Messi would not be able to score that type of goal against an Italian team.
The stage is set, yet Chiellini won’t be on it.
Juventus’ Flex Tactics
Alegri has had an impressive Champion’s League season as the coach of a team that was succeeding everywhere but here. Against Monaco, only a goal up, he went into complete huddle-in-the-bunker mode, parking the bus and absorbing twelve shots and 170 attacking third passes (fourfourtwo.com). Then, when they were expected to repeat this strategy against mighty Madrid, they came out throwing haymakers and landed them. Most likely, Juventus will need to employ an astute mix of both strategies.
While Juventus are OK with 45% of possession no matter who they play against, they won’t get that much against Barcelona, so they will need to make the most out of the opportunities they get, and avoid being frustrated by Barcelona’s tiki-taka spells--that these days turn in the blink of an eye into some of the cleverest counterattacks imaginable.
Much has been made of injuries this Champions League, most notably to key players on Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, but it is certainly possible that these are the best two teams in the world this year, and while the injury to Chiellini puts Barcelona in the driver’s seat, Juventus also could be the team most likely to be able to ask questions of coach Luis Enrique’s favorites.
SUBPLOTS/INTANGIBLES:
- Vidal and Messi will most likely have some sort of meaningful interaction during the game. Before being injured last season, Vidal looked like one of the top five (if not top three) most impactful players on a game of high-level football in the world. While Messi’s current form kills any rational debate as to who is first, with a return to fitness in a final where he can ‘leave everything on the field,’ Vidal promises to play a prominent role in the contest in one way or another, and rest assured he will find a way to end up involved with Messi no matter where he is fielded, much as he did when Ribery was hitting his top form in 2013--resulting in a memorable battle between the two in-form talismen in the second leg of that Champions League quarterfinal.
- Barcelona are no longer fairly described as a team that is vulnerable on free kicks, having conceded only four goals, and scored over five times that much.
- Unlike the last two Champions League finals, this one does not feature two teams from the same league (Germany, Spain), and two star players who had made ill-timed commitments to other teams just before the final (Gotze, Costa). Despite every filthy-rich team publicly coveting Juventus’ Paul Pogba, he has wisely said: “Let people think what they want to think, this is a final, it is a huge final for me, and I am just focused on that.” (Telegraph.co.uk)
- Juventus have six of the top ten players in distance run (UEFA.com) over the course of this Champions League season. Barcelona have none. Their long distance leader is Neymar who is 13th. This tells us two things: 1. Barcelona let the ball do the work 2. Juventus are willing to work.