Two Duos
Up until the end of last season, the most potent force in football for a half decade had been the combination of Xavi and Iniesta. They centered the rise of both club and country to their highest respective points in decades, rendering other successful eras false-summits.
Drawing on Barca’s pre-existing possession culture, the duo upgraded Cruyff’s tiki-taka, seamlessly incorporating Messi and co. into what has been called by many 'the best team ever.'
While Messi’s trailblazing stats are well-documented, the double dose of five-foot-seven midfield maestro seemed to be what actually overwhelmed opponents. Messi always seemed to provide the finishing touches, making brilliant use of the maestros' persistent service.
What was so striking about this era of Barca teams was the way Xavi and Iniesta patiently extracted the integrity of their opponents, leaving even excellently organized sides looking like they were barely playing a team sport.
Watching Barcelona play, it was impossible not to remark a contrast between the selflessness with which Xavi and Iniesta ran their team, and a certain lackluster quality of their opposition, because the opposite of composed, selfless team play is invariably coarse individualism and desperate, pessimistic and sometimes even violent defense.
For Spain the story is similar enough that these separate summits can be seen as a sort of hallmark of their camaraderie. Although also surrounded by a surfeit of talent, they mastered the less-refined international game, and were the string-pullers on the first team to win the Euros on either side of a World Cup. All the while, they brought an aesthetic pleasing, patient quality to every game they anchored.
Then, with Xavi in his thirty-fourth year and fading just ever-so-slightly, both teams were suddenly thrashed off the mountaintops in significant contests: Barca battered 0-7 by Bayern in last year’s Champions League semifinals, and Spain was completely outclassed by Brazil 0-3 in this summer's Confederations Cup Final.
We can imagine that both of these teams will soon recover, and they most likely will, but imagining that they will climb right back up to such great heights is pure folly—even despite the individual talents of a Messi or a Neymar, an Isco or a Fabregas.
After Barcelona was embarrassed out of the Champions league semifinal last year, in that same year’s all-German final, with the match on a razor's edge, it was deja-vu watching both of Bayern's goals come as the result of sublime interplay between two other diminutive attackers.
In a 2-1 win for Bayern, the first, Mandzukic goal came after a give-and-go between Ribery and Robben that tricked open a gap in Dortmund's compact defense, with the second goal a result of Ribery back-heeling Robben through in traffic.
Even though 'Robbery' line up on different wings and have been embroiled in sometimes violent on-field power struggles, it has become clear that in tough contests they both drift into the middle, seeking each other out. Since these two wings have begun to flap, Bayern has rapidly ascended, getting to the Champion's League final a miraculous three times during their four seasons together, and winning the last one.
Xavi's a half-step slower, and Bayern are now the team to beat.
One Award
During the half decade of Xavi and Iniesta’s peerless dominance of the sport, football’s rival goal scorers of that same era bested the tiki-taka patentees time and time again for football's most prestigious awards. Often, either Xavi or Iniesta were ceremoniously tacked-on as the third finalist behind the aforementioned Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, with Iniesta winning the UEFA's Best Player award just once in 2012, (followed by Ribery winning his duo's only award in 2013).
It may be intuitive that individual awards are not geared towards the tactical inseparability of two field players, because, after all, you’d need to cut the thing in half. Yet it still seems that between the all-encompassing team trophies and the generally stat-driven individual honors, what wins football’s most challenging tournaments remains unrecognized.
Taking a look at the statistics of these four simply doesn't paint an accurate picture of their impact on games. While Xavi did have a thirty-four assist season in 2008-2009 and Robben netted twenty-four times during the 2009-2010 season, what these four represent is the moment of creativity, the effortless, immediate synapse between two world-class players that shifts defenses and opens up crevasses even when their opponents are completely hunkered down.
Between them, essentially, is that indefensible element.
In most American sports there is a cliche/truism proffered: 'Defense wins championships.' While hard to argue and certainly relevant as well in international football, to win the Champion's League perhaps teams need this other element.
This element seems to disrupt the space-time continuum of a stern defense for a stuttering millisecond, and suddenly: they’re all leaning wrong. And while evidence of this flash can be readily gleaned in slow motion replay, there are inadequate statistics to represent it, because it takes two, and because the resulting goal can be scored three passes later by an eventual recipient, one with beneficial stats such as an Eto’o, an Henry, a Villa, an Ibrahimovich or a Messi; an Olic, a Gomez, a Klose, a Mandzukic or even a Pizarro.
A Theory
If you count up the world-class, heads-up attackers on a team, this should give you at least a vague probability about what their chances are of finding this unstoppable, automatic chemistry betwixt them.
That being said, it only takes two…
Recent History
The last 8 Champion’s league winners, and their world-class attackers who ‘clicked’:
2005/2006 BARCA: Deco/Ronaldinho/Eto'o
2006/2007 MILAN: Kaka/Seedorf/Pirlo/Inzaghi
2007/2008 MAN U: Ronaldo/Rooney/Tevez
2008/2009 BARCA: Xavi/Iniesta/Messi
2009/2010 INTER: Schneider/Milito
2010/2011 BARCA: Xavi/Iniesta/Messi
2011/2012 CHELSEA: Lampard/Drogba
2012/2013 BAYERN: Ribery/Robben
Who Combines?
Based on the above theory of the 'indefensible element,' here is a suggested list of potential 2013-2014 Champions League winners, with new players italicized, former Champions League winners starred, each player representing one point, and with players accompanied by question marks counting for half a point. The teams' scores simply quantify the amount of players who, if they were to share this element, could be tournament-changers.
TIER 1: THE PROBABLE
#1 Barca: Messi*-Iniesta*-Neymar-Fabregas(?)-Xavi*(?)-Dani Alves*(?)=4.5
Defenders deserve a question mark despite the fact that Dani Alves is definitely a consistent attacker. Fabregas, while proven at Arsenal, has not found either consistent playing time or success. Xavi may be in decline, but on paper Barca still retain the most possibilities, especially with the possible interplay between Neymar and Messi and the potential return to prominence of Fabregas if Xavi is indeed in decline.
#2 Bayern Munich: Ribery*-Robben*-Gotze(?)-Kroos*(?)-Alaba*(?)-Muller*(?)=4
Like Fabregas, it remains to be seen how the proven Gotze will fit in, and like Dani Alves, Alaba has a question mark only because of his starting block. Although proven at the international level and very effective for Bayern, Muller seems to continuously hover on the edge of being world-class--as Robben used to before linking up with Ribery at Bayern. While Kroos is proven, his playing time is not a certainty.
TIER 2: THE POSSIBLE
#3 Juventus: Tevez*-Vidal-Pirlo*(?)-Pogba-(?)=3
Vidal may quietly be the second best player alive and has already begun linking up with Tevez in a way that could push an amazingly consistently team over the top. Pirlo is only a question mark because he’s thirty-four, and Pogba—given his recent play—only because he’s twenty.
#4 Dortmund: Reus-Lewandoski-Mkhitaryan(?)-Aubameyang(?)=3
Mkhitaryan and Aubemeyang had monster seasons last year for their previous clubs, and have both hit the ground running this season to the point where last year’s finalists may have actually had the best transfer window of any contender.
#5 Real Madrid: Ronaldo*-Bale-Isco(?)-Modric(?)=3
A score of three may be a bit stingy, but there remains a question about whether both Modric and Isco will both start and play consistently. If Bale and Ronaldo were to improbably click quickly, however, there may be no stopping this team.
TIER 3: THE NOT IMPOSSIBLE
#7 Chelsea: Mata*(?), Hazard*(?), Oscar*(?), Eto'o*(?), Lampard*(?)=2.5
Hazard and Oscar are certainly on the cusp of being world-class, but perhaps just lack some constancy. Mata is proven, but will he even play? Eto’o is returning from an insanely well-paid tryst at Anzi Makhatchkala, but leaves behind an unremarkable, tainted legacy with assistant coach Roberto Carlos* basically calling him a ‘team-wrecker.’ Frank Lampard is 35, although he was part of a duo who won it when he was 33.
#7 PSG: Cavani-Lucas- Ibrahimovich=2.5
Though an excellent passer and a successful player in league play, there remain questions about Ibra’s arrogance interrupting his ability to link up with teammates to the point of being indefensible. Cavani has proven this capability for both Napoli and Uruguay, and Lucas was formerly so dominant in Sao Paulo’s atypical Copa Sudamericana finals against Tigres that his opponents didn't return after halftime.
#8 Man City: Aguero, Yaya Toure=2
Perhaps suffering from double-diva syndrome, Man City let both of them go, and while Negredo and Navaz provide much, it is doubtful they will become part of an indefensible pact as Tevez and Balotelli have both proven they can.
#9 Man U: Van Persie, Rooney*=2
Interestingly enough Nani* used to be (he’s twenty-six now) a world-class attacker but spent the past season rotting on the bench under Ferguson. Van Persie and Rooney still seem embroiled in an alpha dog stare down and aren’t close to finding their combined stride.
#10 Arsenal: Ozil, Walcott(?), Cazorla(?)=2
Enough questions surround this team that it won’t be a surprise if they don’t survive the group stages. Is Walcott world-class if he stays healthy for a complete season, or will his career be defined by kinetic energy? Will Cazorla and Ozil complement each other or even play together?
TIER 4: THE IMPOSSIBLE
The twenty-two teams who will not win the 2013-2014 Champions League.
Up until the end of last season, the most potent force in football for a half decade had been the combination of Xavi and Iniesta. They centered the rise of both club and country to their highest respective points in decades, rendering other successful eras false-summits.
Drawing on Barca’s pre-existing possession culture, the duo upgraded Cruyff’s tiki-taka, seamlessly incorporating Messi and co. into what has been called by many 'the best team ever.'
While Messi’s trailblazing stats are well-documented, the double dose of five-foot-seven midfield maestro seemed to be what actually overwhelmed opponents. Messi always seemed to provide the finishing touches, making brilliant use of the maestros' persistent service.
What was so striking about this era of Barca teams was the way Xavi and Iniesta patiently extracted the integrity of their opponents, leaving even excellently organized sides looking like they were barely playing a team sport.
Watching Barcelona play, it was impossible not to remark a contrast between the selflessness with which Xavi and Iniesta ran their team, and a certain lackluster quality of their opposition, because the opposite of composed, selfless team play is invariably coarse individualism and desperate, pessimistic and sometimes even violent defense.
For Spain the story is similar enough that these separate summits can be seen as a sort of hallmark of their camaraderie. Although also surrounded by a surfeit of talent, they mastered the less-refined international game, and were the string-pullers on the first team to win the Euros on either side of a World Cup. All the while, they brought an aesthetic pleasing, patient quality to every game they anchored.
Then, with Xavi in his thirty-fourth year and fading just ever-so-slightly, both teams were suddenly thrashed off the mountaintops in significant contests: Barca battered 0-7 by Bayern in last year’s Champions League semifinals, and Spain was completely outclassed by Brazil 0-3 in this summer's Confederations Cup Final.
We can imagine that both of these teams will soon recover, and they most likely will, but imagining that they will climb right back up to such great heights is pure folly—even despite the individual talents of a Messi or a Neymar, an Isco or a Fabregas.
After Barcelona was embarrassed out of the Champions league semifinal last year, in that same year’s all-German final, with the match on a razor's edge, it was deja-vu watching both of Bayern's goals come as the result of sublime interplay between two other diminutive attackers.
In a 2-1 win for Bayern, the first, Mandzukic goal came after a give-and-go between Ribery and Robben that tricked open a gap in Dortmund's compact defense, with the second goal a result of Ribery back-heeling Robben through in traffic.
Even though 'Robbery' line up on different wings and have been embroiled in sometimes violent on-field power struggles, it has become clear that in tough contests they both drift into the middle, seeking each other out. Since these two wings have begun to flap, Bayern has rapidly ascended, getting to the Champion's League final a miraculous three times during their four seasons together, and winning the last one.
Xavi's a half-step slower, and Bayern are now the team to beat.
One Award
During the half decade of Xavi and Iniesta’s peerless dominance of the sport, football’s rival goal scorers of that same era bested the tiki-taka patentees time and time again for football's most prestigious awards. Often, either Xavi or Iniesta were ceremoniously tacked-on as the third finalist behind the aforementioned Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, with Iniesta winning the UEFA's Best Player award just once in 2012, (followed by Ribery winning his duo's only award in 2013).
It may be intuitive that individual awards are not geared towards the tactical inseparability of two field players, because, after all, you’d need to cut the thing in half. Yet it still seems that between the all-encompassing team trophies and the generally stat-driven individual honors, what wins football’s most challenging tournaments remains unrecognized.
Taking a look at the statistics of these four simply doesn't paint an accurate picture of their impact on games. While Xavi did have a thirty-four assist season in 2008-2009 and Robben netted twenty-four times during the 2009-2010 season, what these four represent is the moment of creativity, the effortless, immediate synapse between two world-class players that shifts defenses and opens up crevasses even when their opponents are completely hunkered down.
Between them, essentially, is that indefensible element.
In most American sports there is a cliche/truism proffered: 'Defense wins championships.' While hard to argue and certainly relevant as well in international football, to win the Champion's League perhaps teams need this other element.
This element seems to disrupt the space-time continuum of a stern defense for a stuttering millisecond, and suddenly: they’re all leaning wrong. And while evidence of this flash can be readily gleaned in slow motion replay, there are inadequate statistics to represent it, because it takes two, and because the resulting goal can be scored three passes later by an eventual recipient, one with beneficial stats such as an Eto’o, an Henry, a Villa, an Ibrahimovich or a Messi; an Olic, a Gomez, a Klose, a Mandzukic or even a Pizarro.
A Theory
If you count up the world-class, heads-up attackers on a team, this should give you at least a vague probability about what their chances are of finding this unstoppable, automatic chemistry betwixt them.
That being said, it only takes two…
Recent History
The last 8 Champion’s league winners, and their world-class attackers who ‘clicked’:
2005/2006 BARCA: Deco/Ronaldinho/Eto'o
2006/2007 MILAN: Kaka/Seedorf/Pirlo/Inzaghi
2007/2008 MAN U: Ronaldo/Rooney/Tevez
2008/2009 BARCA: Xavi/Iniesta/Messi
2009/2010 INTER: Schneider/Milito
2010/2011 BARCA: Xavi/Iniesta/Messi
2011/2012 CHELSEA: Lampard/Drogba
2012/2013 BAYERN: Ribery/Robben
Who Combines?
Based on the above theory of the 'indefensible element,' here is a suggested list of potential 2013-2014 Champions League winners, with new players italicized, former Champions League winners starred, each player representing one point, and with players accompanied by question marks counting for half a point. The teams' scores simply quantify the amount of players who, if they were to share this element, could be tournament-changers.
TIER 1: THE PROBABLE
#1 Barca: Messi*-Iniesta*-Neymar-Fabregas(?)-Xavi*(?)-Dani Alves*(?)=4.5
Defenders deserve a question mark despite the fact that Dani Alves is definitely a consistent attacker. Fabregas, while proven at Arsenal, has not found either consistent playing time or success. Xavi may be in decline, but on paper Barca still retain the most possibilities, especially with the possible interplay between Neymar and Messi and the potential return to prominence of Fabregas if Xavi is indeed in decline.
#2 Bayern Munich: Ribery*-Robben*-Gotze(?)-Kroos*(?)-Alaba*(?)-Muller*(?)=4
Like Fabregas, it remains to be seen how the proven Gotze will fit in, and like Dani Alves, Alaba has a question mark only because of his starting block. Although proven at the international level and very effective for Bayern, Muller seems to continuously hover on the edge of being world-class--as Robben used to before linking up with Ribery at Bayern. While Kroos is proven, his playing time is not a certainty.
TIER 2: THE POSSIBLE
#3 Juventus: Tevez*-Vidal-Pirlo*(?)-Pogba-(?)=3
Vidal may quietly be the second best player alive and has already begun linking up with Tevez in a way that could push an amazingly consistently team over the top. Pirlo is only a question mark because he’s thirty-four, and Pogba—given his recent play—only because he’s twenty.
#4 Dortmund: Reus-Lewandoski-Mkhitaryan(?)-Aubameyang(?)=3
Mkhitaryan and Aubemeyang had monster seasons last year for their previous clubs, and have both hit the ground running this season to the point where last year’s finalists may have actually had the best transfer window of any contender.
#5 Real Madrid: Ronaldo*-Bale-Isco(?)-Modric(?)=3
A score of three may be a bit stingy, but there remains a question about whether both Modric and Isco will both start and play consistently. If Bale and Ronaldo were to improbably click quickly, however, there may be no stopping this team.
TIER 3: THE NOT IMPOSSIBLE
#7 Chelsea: Mata*(?), Hazard*(?), Oscar*(?), Eto'o*(?), Lampard*(?)=2.5
Hazard and Oscar are certainly on the cusp of being world-class, but perhaps just lack some constancy. Mata is proven, but will he even play? Eto’o is returning from an insanely well-paid tryst at Anzi Makhatchkala, but leaves behind an unremarkable, tainted legacy with assistant coach Roberto Carlos* basically calling him a ‘team-wrecker.’ Frank Lampard is 35, although he was part of a duo who won it when he was 33.
#7 PSG: Cavani-Lucas- Ibrahimovich=2.5
Though an excellent passer and a successful player in league play, there remain questions about Ibra’s arrogance interrupting his ability to link up with teammates to the point of being indefensible. Cavani has proven this capability for both Napoli and Uruguay, and Lucas was formerly so dominant in Sao Paulo’s atypical Copa Sudamericana finals against Tigres that his opponents didn't return after halftime.
#8 Man City: Aguero, Yaya Toure=2
Perhaps suffering from double-diva syndrome, Man City let both of them go, and while Negredo and Navaz provide much, it is doubtful they will become part of an indefensible pact as Tevez and Balotelli have both proven they can.
#9 Man U: Van Persie, Rooney*=2
Interestingly enough Nani* used to be (he’s twenty-six now) a world-class attacker but spent the past season rotting on the bench under Ferguson. Van Persie and Rooney still seem embroiled in an alpha dog stare down and aren’t close to finding their combined stride.
#10 Arsenal: Ozil, Walcott(?), Cazorla(?)=2
Enough questions surround this team that it won’t be a surprise if they don’t survive the group stages. Is Walcott world-class if he stays healthy for a complete season, or will his career be defined by kinetic energy? Will Cazorla and Ozil complement each other or even play together?
TIER 4: THE IMPOSSIBLE
The twenty-two teams who will not win the 2013-2014 Champions League.